GoKawiilCNBC's Jim Cramer said Monday that Wall Street's resilience in the face of escalating geopolitical tensions shows investors are focusing less on the Iran war itself and more on a key driver of stock valuations: interest rates.
"I think I've been negligent in bringing up the power of low rates, because it's the reason the bulls keep winning when it seems like they should be slaughtered," said the "Mad Money" host. "Let's not overthink it. If interest rates were spiking, this market would be very different."
Despite a surge in oil prices tied to supply disruptions from the Straight of Hormuz, the S&P 500 has rallied in recent weeks back to within 1.5% of its January record close — a move that runs counter to historical patterns, Cramer said. Typically, a sharp rise in energy costs would weigh heavily on equities.
"But history is being disobeyed and ignored," he said.
The reason, according to Cramer, is that the interest rates on government bonds have rolled over after initially jumping in response to the U.S. and Israel attacking Iran on Feb. 28. That dynamic is allowing investors to continue paying higher valuations for stocks, even as geopolitical risks persist. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield topped out on March 27. The S&P 500's lowest close of the year came on March 30.
"As long as the rates don't move higher, the new Fed…certainly isn't going to raise short rates and they might even be able to bless us with [rate] cuts," he said, referring to Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee to replace Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve. Powell's term is set to expire next month.
Cramer argued that while higher oil prices are contributing to inflation, their broader economic impact may be less pronounced than in past energy shocks. Vehicles are more fuel efficient these days, and the country's reliance on natural gas — which remains far cheaper domestically than abroad — provides a key advantage in keeping inflation relatively more tame.
"Natural gas — not oil — is our secret weapon," he said.
That could also shape how the Fed responds. While recent inflation data has been elevated in part due to tariffs and energy costs, Cramer said central bankers may treat those pressures as temporary when considering future rate cuts.
"The Fed will most likely asterisk these increases as all one-off price increases," he said.
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