GoKawiilThere’s a landgrab underway in the U.S. for perpetual futures, one of the biggest and riskiest parts of the crypto trading world — and prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket reportedly want a piece of it.
Perpetual futures, better known by users as "perps," are futures contracts without expiration dates that have seen explosive growth since President Trump returned to office. Before that, perps — which can offer up to 100x leverage — didn't really exist in the U.S., a big reason offshore exchanges like Binance and the now defunct FTX grew so dominant.
Today, perps account for more than 70% of all the volume on centralized crypto exchanges, according to CoinGecko. In 2025, perps trading volume climbed to a nominal $61.7 trillion, a 29% increase from 2024, according to data from CryptoQuant. By comparison, spot crypto trading volume reached a nominal $18.6 trillion in 2025, up 9% from the previous year.
The convergence of prediction markets and leveraged trading could reshape how Americans trade on real-world events. It would also bring prediction markets into direct competition with platforms such as Robinhood and Coinbase , and lead skeptics to question whether combining prediction markets with leveraged products would heighten volatility and more closely link crypto to mainstream finance.
For the incumbent crypto platforms themselves, however, analysts have largely downplayed any potential risks posed by challenges from the predictions markets.
Natural extension
"I don't see this as an immediate threat," said Owen Lau, an analyst at Clear Street. "This is a natural product extension for Polymarket and Kalshi's existing customers … It'd be hard to ask people from Coinbase or Binance or Robinhood to abandon their existing platform and go to [them]."
Mizuho's Dan Dolev said the move from prediction markets aims more to guard against risk rather than gain ground.
"Eventually … Robinhood is going to want to do it on their own," Dolev said. "So it's a defensive move more than it is an offensive move."
Robinhood launched its Prediction Markets hub last year through a partnership with Kalshi, and it became the platform's fastest-ever growing product line by revenue, with 11 billion contracts traded by more than 1 million customers in 2025, according to the company. Coinbase launched its partnership with Kalshi this January.
... continue reading