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Here’s how the new Microsoft and OpenAI deal breaks down

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Why This Matters

The new Microsoft and OpenAI deal marks a significant shift in the AI industry, allowing OpenAI to distribute its products across multiple cloud providers, including AWS, which introduces increased competition and flexibility. This move reflects the evolving landscape of AI partnerships and highlights how major tech companies are navigating strategic alliances to maximize reach and revenue. For consumers and the industry, it signals a more open and competitive AI ecosystem, potentially accelerating innovation and accessibility.

Key Takeaways

Microsoft’s relationship with OpenAI has always been complicated, so I expected the close partnership-turned-situationship to end in tears. After all, executive disagreements, rearranged contracts, and frustrations over AI infrastructure have all regularly been part of the partnership, creating plenty of tension along the way. But against all odds, Microsoft and OpenAI divorced this week in a way that looks strangely amicable.

Microsoft announced the updates to its long-standing OpenAI deal on Monday, with the most important change allowing OpenAI to make its products and services available across all cloud providers. A day later, OpenAI announced it was bringing its latest AI models, Codex, and other tools to AWS — Microsoft’s biggest cloud rival.

It’s a move that seemed likely ever since Amazon announced its $50 billion deal with OpenAI earlier this year, which was originally framed as a deal to make AWS a third-party provider of OpenAI Frontier, together with some collaborative work on custom models for Alexa. Microsoft wasn’t happy about OpenAI cutting a deal with its main rival, and it was weighing legal action ahead of this renegotiation.

Amazon and OpenAI clearly wanted a closer partnership, especially as Amazon is playing catch-up in the AI market and trying to push agents to businesses through its Bedrock service. OpenAI told its employees earlier this month that its deal with Microsoft “has also limited our ability to meet enterprises where they are — for many that’s Bedrock.” Ouch.

As much as Microsoft will hate seeing OpenAI models being available to Amazon, it now stands to benefit from OpenAI cozying up to its rival. Sources tell me that as part of the amended agreement, Microsoft will continue to receive 20 percent of the revenue OpenAI earns for ChatGPT and the AI startup’s API platform. This also includes a cut of any revenue OpenAI earns from putting its products and services on rival cloud platforms like AWS. There’s a revenue cap, but this seems mutually beneficial for both Microsoft and OpenAI even if the Amazon deal originally angered Microsoft.

Microsoft will remain “OpenAI’s primary cloud partner” and ship OpenAI’s latest products first on Azure, but the lack of exclusivity now means OpenAI’s new models can ship minutes later to rival cloud platforms. I wouldn’t be surprised to see OpenAI’s models also appear on Google’s Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform service in the future.

That gives Microsoft less of an advantage over its rivals, particularly for its Azure OpenAI service and its Foundry efforts. Microsoft’s non-exclusive license for OpenAI models and products will now last through 2032, a two-year extension over the previous 2030 cutoff date.

The revenue sharing is also one way now, so Microsoft no longer has to pay 20 percent of its Azure OpenAI revenue back to OpenAI. This new deal also means Microsoft won’t be paying a revenue share to OpenAI if its search and news advertising revenue grows by 15 percent year over year. Microsoft still owns around 27 percent of OpenAI’s for-profit arm, too, making it a major shareholder in OpenAI’s future growth.

This amicable split but not-a-split has only been made possible because Microsoft’s access to OpenAI models is no longer tied to a clause about artificial general intelligence (AGI), something that has long dictated OpenAI and Microsoft’s partnership. The removal of the AGI clause means Microsoft will no longer lose access to OpenAI’s most advanced future models once AGI is theoretically reached. And on the flip side, OpenAI is no longer incentivized to declare AGI to get out of the deal.

The pair had been arguing about the AGI clause for well over a year, and things got particularly heated when OpenAI was considering a $3 billion deal to buy AI coding tool Windsurf last year. OpenAI wanted Windsurf to be exempt from the deal with Microsoft, and even reportedly considered accusing Microsoft of anticompetitive behavior. OpenAI eventually backed down on its Windsurf acquisition plans, but sources at Microsoft tell me it led to months of tense negotiations over OpenAI’s controversial for-profit restructuring last year.

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