GoKawiilRecent disruptions—such as the COVID-19 pandemic1,2 and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine3,4,5—have underscored the vulnerability of long food supply chains, prompting renewed discussions on self-sufficiency6. In addition, while advocates of the ‘eat local’ movement focus on reducing diet-related emissions, transport contributes only ~5% of food-systems emissions7,8.
This raises the question of whether countries can achieve food self-sufficiency. We use Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Food Balance Sheets (FBS) 2020 production data and the World Wildlife Fund’s (WWF’s) Livewell diet9 to analyse the discrepancy between domestic food production and dietary guidelines across seven food groups.
Previous studies have assessed caloric self-sufficiency at various administrative levels based on current consumption patterns10,11. We pursue a more comprehensive approach, focusing on food groups essential for a healthy diet—rather than solely on calories—and analysing both past and future trends in self-sufficiency. Finally, we analyse trade dependencies of countries with low self-sufficiency, emphasizing the critical role of response diversity—the ability of countries to adapt to trade disruptions by diversifying their import sources, as defined by Walker et al.12—in building resilient food systems.
Out of 186 countries, 154 can fulfil the requirements for 2 to 5 out of 7 food groups of the Livewell diet through domestic production (Fig. 1). Only Guyana achieves self-sufficiency for all seven food groups, while China and Vietnam attain six. By contrast, six countries, primarily in the Middle East—Afghanistan, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, China Macao Special Administrative Region, Qatar and Yemen—do not achieve the needs of any food group (Fig. 1). More than one-third of all countries achieve self-sufficiency for two or fewer groups; 25 are in Africa, 10 in the Caribbean, and 7 in Europe. Only one in seven countries achieve self-sufficiency in five or more food groups, most within Europe and South America.
Fig. 1: Percentage of self-sufficiency for specific food groups. The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI. Full size image National food availability from domestic production as proportion from recommended intake by the Livewell diet in grams per capita per day for 187 (dairy, 186) countries in 2020. Thereby, 100% means that all recommendations of a food group are met.
Regarding animal agriculture, meat self-sufficiency is relatively high, with 65% of countries (over)achieving their dietary needs, while sub-Saharan Africa faces considerable deficits. African countries also face challenges in dairy production, along with Oceania; 82% and 83%, respectively, are not able to achieve their dairy needs. Less than half achieve self-sufficiency for dairy (44%), but all European countries can reach their dairy requirements independently. Fish and seafood self-sufficiency is particularly low across most regions, only 25% achieving sufficiency, including Russia and countries in the Pacific region. Globally, 60% of countries cannot cover half of their fish needs (Fig. 1).
Approximately one-half of countries achieve self-sufficiency for starchy staples (45%); legumes, nuts and seeds (46%); and fruits (47%), but fewer than one quarter do so for vegetables (24%). Starchy staple production is insufficient in key regions including Western Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, the Caribbean and Central America, where only Dominica is self-sufficient. Conversely, South America and the Caribbean perform well in fruit production, while all Northern European countries fail to cover even half of their fruit requirements. Vegetable self-sufficiency is high in the Mediterranean and Central Asia, yet 91% of sub-Saharan African countries fall short. Northern Europe, South America and the Caribbean also struggle with vegetable production, with only Guyana achieving sufficiency in these regions (Fig. 1).
We also examined self-sufficiency within economic unions and the resulting echo patterns observed at the country level. For instance, the Gulf Cooperation Council is self-sufficient in only meat production. Similarly, the West African Economic and Monetary Union and the Caribbean Community are self-sufficient in only two food groups—legumes, nuts and seeds, and starchy staples for the West African Economic and Monetary Union, and fruits and meat for the Caribbean Community. Four economic unions achieve self-sufficiency for five out of seven food groups, but none surpass this. It is worth noting that no union is self-sufficient in vegetables, and only two achieve self-sufficiency for fish and seafood (Fig. 2).
Fig. 2: Percentage of self-sufficiency for specific food groups at different regional levels. The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI. Full size image The numbers are the proportion of domestic production (deducted by food that will not enter the body) of nutritional requirements of the Livewell diet in percentage. Thereby, 100% means the requirements of the respective food group are met. White cells denote full self-sufficiency. Red cells mark a deficit; the darker the red, the larger the gap. Green cells show the number of food groups regions are self-sufficient in; darker green corresponds to a higher count. EUCU + UK, European Union Customs Union and United Kingdom; EACU, Eurasian Customs Union; EAC, East African Community; WAEMU, West African Economic and Monetary Union; SACU, Southern African Customs Union; CEMAC, Communauté Économique et Monétaire de l’Afrique Centrale; MERCOSUR, Mercado Común del Sur; CAN, Andean Community; CARICOM, Caribbean Community; CACM, Central American Common Market; GCC, Gulf Cooperation Council; AFTA, ASEAN Free Trade Area; USMCA, United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement; SAARC, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. See Supplementary Fig. 1 and Supplementary Table 1 for further details.
While regional trade enhances self-sufficiency, it also exposes countries to risks if they rely too heavily on a narrow group of trade partners. For example, West Africa’s high dependence on rice imports—70% in some countries—makes the region vulnerable to market shocks, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 6 day Ever Given Suez Canal blockage in 2021. These examples underscore the importance of diversifying trade relationships to improve resilience12.
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