GoKawiilSince March, war in the Middle East has disrupted global fertilizer markets. Urea prices jumped by nearly 46% in a month, as geopolitical and energy shocks hit nitrogen supply chains1. The disruptions caused by blocked maritime bottlenecks, including the Strait of Hormuz, limiting tanker movements and flows of oil and liquefied natural gas, underscore the coupled nature of global energy and food systems.
As a result of the crisis, the World Food Programme has warned that global food systems are under severe strain, with more than 360 million people facing acute food insecurity in 2026 and tens of millions at risk of famine (see go.nature.com/48jygpd).
These dynamics echo the fertilizer crisis of 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine decreased ammonia production across Europe — at times by more than half — and drove nitrogen fertilizer prices to record highs (see ‘Fertilizer shortfalls’). The recurrence of this pattern of an energy shock causing fertilizer disruption and food insecurity exposes a systemic vulnerability that must urgently be addressed.
Fertilizer production needs to be recognized as crucial infrastructure for ensuring food security. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector must reduce its dependence on volatile energy markets through precise nutrient management and diversified production technologies.
Food and energy links
Half of all food consumed globally depends on synthetic nitrogen fertilizers made using an industrial ammonia-producing method called the Haber–Bosch process2. This process consumes 1–2% of global energy and contributes a comparable share of carbon dioxide emissions. Natural gas serves as both a feedstock and the primary energy source, accounting for 70–80% of ammonia-production costs. This coupling means that disruptions in energy markets push up fertilizer prices rapidly.
How the war in Iran is reshaping the energy landscape
The current fertilizer crisis is worse than the one in 2022 because more countries are affected. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial passage for world trade — about 38% of global crude oil, 29% of liquefied petroleum gas, 19% of liquefied natural gas and 13% of chemicals, including fertilizers, normally pass through it3.
Shipments have been all but halted by security threats and blockades. Exports from key suppliers, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, to global nitrogen, sulfur and phosphate markets are constrained. This has raised nitrogen fertilizer prices by 30% and phosphates by 5–15% as buyers compete for limited supplies.
A cascading shock
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