GoKawiilWhen Arm introduced its first 'physical' AGI processors in late March, the company expressed optimism about their adoption by select customers. In less than two months, the company attained around $2 billion in commitments for its AGI CPU over the next several years, smashing the company's expectations two-fold. But despite this heightened interest, Arm's market share will remain in the low single digits even if it manages to ship $2 billion worth of CPUs in two years, Mercury Research told Tom's Hardware.
"Customer response to the Arm AGI CPU is already strong, with more than $2 billion of customer demand across FYE27 and FYE28 – more than double what was stated at Arm Everywhere," Arm declared in its earnings press release.
Arm officially introduced its AGI CPU on March 24, 2026, and referred to it as 'production silicon,' meaning the design of the processor itself is final. Actual production of the CPU is expected to begin in the second half of 2026, with initial customer shipments expected in Q4 2026. Arm expects to ship $90 to $100 million worth of AGI CPUs in Q4 2026 alone.
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Given the rising interest in the new chip, the company expects to generate $15B in AGI CPU sales and $10B in IP revenue by FY 2031 (ending on March 31, 2031), which will drive its total revenue to $25B per year, up from $2.61B in FY 2026.
Generating $15 billion in data center CPU sales in a single year is a big deal; Intel earned $16.8B selling server processors last year, after all. Given the rising demand for CPUs, particularly for agentic AI workloads, Arm's revenue may indeed increase by almost a factor of 10, with actual CPUs accounting for 60% of that total figure.
Single-digit percent of the server market
While $100M worth of AGI CPUs in Q4 2026 and over $2B of demand for the next two fiscal years looks like a lot of money (especially given the fact that Arm's current annual revenue is $2.61B), Arm's presence in the server and data center CPU market (silicon CPUs, not IP) will be negligible (yet still quite hard to achieve) if compared to share of merchant CPUs.
(Image credit: Arm)
AMD and Intel sold just under 20 million data center-oriented EPYC and Xeon SP processors worth tens of billions of dollars in 2025, according to Dean McCarron, president and principal analyst at Mercury Research, a leading CPU market research firm. If we consider only 2025 data center CPU shipments, Arm would need around 4% unit share of the current server CPU market to achieve its $2 billion revenue target.
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