GoKawiilWildfires ravaged forests in Brazil in 2024, in the wake of the last El Niño, when the country experienced a record drought.Credit: Sergio Lima/AFP via Getty
Headlines have been proclaiming that one of the strongest El Niño weather patterns in recent decades might be starting up later this year. If a big one kicks in, as forecasts currently suggest, it could bring floods, droughts and other weather extremes to many parts of the globe, as well as potentially boost 2027’s temperatures to record highs.
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But how sure are meteorologists that this ‘super’ El Niño is on the horizon?
In the past few months, sea surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed more than usual, which is the hallmark of an emerging El Niño. Still uncertain, however, is whether winds and other weather factors will either ratchet up that ocean heat or temper it — and therefore weaken the possibility of a strong El Niño.
The latest forecast from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released today, suggests that there is a strong chance of an El Niño developing between May and July this year, but that there is much uncertainty in its peak strength. This will become clearer during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. (El Niños typically reach their maximum from October to February.)
Intensity uncertainty
El Niño is a complex global event that recurs roughly every two to seven years. The last one, in 2023–24, brought impacts, including drought and hunger to parts of southern Africa and record floods to southern Brazil. It also contributed to 2024 being the hottest year on record.
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This year, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have been warmer than normal, rising as much as 1 ºC above average in recent weeks off the western coast of South America. On that basis, computer models from various government agencies and research groups suggest that the coming El Niño could peak more strongly than the previous one.
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