GoKawiil02 · arr audit
The "$10M ARR" doesn't reconcile — by their own numbers.
"approaching $10M ARR" · "$1M/week, approaching $10M" polsia.com marketing · 2026-05-22
A · What the “$10M ARR” is actually made of
The headline $9.70M is five annualized 30-day cashflow buckets (snapshot 2026-05-22): subscriptions $4.64M (47.8%), one-off packs $1.97M (20.3%), ad-spend pass-through $1.93M (19.9%), 1-hour “boosts” $0.80M (8.2%), user-company payments $0.36M (3.7%). ~20% of their “ARR” is literally ad spend — money flowing through for ad buys, annualized as revenue. Only the subscription slice (~$4.6M) is recurring revenue at all — and even that isn't durable or profitable: it churns ~48%/month (so it doesn't actually recur a year out — real ARR ≈ $0, above), and AI compute alone eats ~57% of every subscription dollar (§02-D). The ~$4.6M is not a profitable recurring business; it's a number that evaporates and loses money on the way.
The $9.70M “ARR” = 5 annualized 30-day cashflow buckets. ~20% is ad spend.
reproduce — public, no auth (snapshot 2026-05-22) copy curl -s https://polsia.com/api/public/live/dashboard | jq '.stats.arr_usd' # "9702733" = (subscription + instant_packs + ad_spend + boosts + user_company over 30d) × 12 — ~20% is ad spend
B · The "$1M a week" lasted about a week
Their own arrHistory peaked at +$894K the week ending May 14, then +$347K the next — a 61% drop. Live, the trailing-7-day add is +$282K and still falling. Decelerating, not accelerating; and the near-monotonic curve despite their own ~48% monthly churn is what cumulative gross-flow looks like, not net recurring ARR.
Weekly ARR adds: +$894K peak → +$347K (−61%). Still falling — +$282K in the last 7 days.
... continue reading