GoKawiilSummary New Orleans could be surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico this century, according to a scientific analysis.
Researchers say the city has crossed the point of no return and must begin planning relocation now to avoid chaos.
The study warns that waiting until resources are exhausted will entrench inequalities but others fear relocation plans will overlook the city's most vulnerable residents.
New Orleans is locked into a watery future which could see it surrounded by ocean as early as this century, according to a new expert analysis, which says the city must start the relocation process now to avoid chaos.
The paper’s conclusions are stark, but it’s no secret that New Orleans is highly vulnerable to rising seas as the planet warms. Coastal Louisiana is one of the lowest lying regions in the world, and New Orleans, a city of 360,000 people, is particularly exposed. It sits in a bowl-shaped basin, mostly below sea level, in the middle of a rapidly shrinking delta.
The city is almost entirely surrounded by wetlands, which act as a buffer against hurricanes and storm surges. These are fast disappearing, however, as humans drain them for development, dredge canals in them for the oil and gas industry and construct river levees, depriving them of the sediments that stop them being submerged. Since the 1930s, Louisiana has lost around 2,000 square miles of wetlands.
Coastal Louisiana faces sea level rise of around 10 to 23 feet, according to the analysis published in May in the journal Nature Sustainability. The impacts will be bleak: around 75% of its remaining wetlands are set to be lost and its shoreline could retreat inland by up to 62 miles, the scientists found.
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The region has “crossed the point of no return,” the paper’s authors wrote, adding New Orleans “may well be surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico before the end of this century.” They argue the city must seize the opportunity to develop strategies for relocation that could make it a model for places facing a similar fate.
Rising seas are coming for coastal towns and cities all over the world, from New York and London to Bangkok and Shanghai. “The main questions are how soon those futures will come, and how they will play out,” said Benjamin Strauss, CEO and chief scientist at Climate Central, a climate research nonprofit.
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