GoKawiilForecasters are calling for below-average activity this hurricane season, which begins Monday, June 1.
The National Weather Service is predicting eight to 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes of category 3, 4, or 5 strength, packing winds of 111 mph or greater. By comparison, a typical season is characterized by 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The season ends November 30.
“It just takes one,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. “Now is the time to start thinking about your hurricane preparedness.”
The forecasters based their predictions on an expected El Niño that is likely to develop during the season. An El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that begins with unusually warm waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and can affect weather patterns worldwide.
In the Pacific, an El Niño can trigger more hurricanes. But in the Atlantic Ocean, the phenomenon can suppress activity, as it tends to cause more wind shear that can break apart the storms. Nonetheless, warm water temperatures in the Atlantic were expected to help the storms that do develop rapidly intensify, something that is becoming more common as climate change heats the planet’s oceans.
“When your ocean temperatures are warmer you get more intense hurricanes to develop. So if there is an opportunity and a location for low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures,” said Marc Alessi, science fellow at the Union for Concerned Scientists, an advocacy group, “that is when you can get a very strong hurricane to form.”