Robust projections of risks to the Amazon rainforest

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01 June 2026 Robust projections of risks to the Amazon rainforest Amazonian deforestation is altering atmospheric moisture transport; as a result, even low levels of global warming could trigger dieback of most of the remaining forest. By Chris Huntingford ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5941-7770 0 Chris Huntingford Chris Huntingford is at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK. View author publications PubMed Google Scholar

The Amazon rainforest is repeatedly highlighted as being at risk from the effects of climate change. However, few studies have investigated whether deforestation will affect the threshold of temperature increase at which the remaining forest dies back. By merging measurement analysis with simulations, Wunderling et al.1 report in Nature that severe deforestation could reduce the level of warming at which forests lose resilience by approximately 2 °C, compared with the warming threshold in a scenario with minimal changes in land use. After accounting for deforestation, the global-warming threshold at which the remaining Amazon rainforest could collapse is estimated to be only slightly higher than the current level of human-induced planetary warming.

Nature 654, 37-38 (2026)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-026-01158-8

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Competing Interests The author declares no competing interests.

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