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Elon Musk’s SpaceX IPO is a mere week away, with the space company aiming to raise a whopping $75 billion at an astronomical valuation of $1.78 trillion.
The company’s top priority has historically been to get humanity settled on Mars, making it an interplanetary species. But now Musk has unexpectedly merged it with his AI startup xAI to focus on space-based data centers, an extremely costly and potentially fruitless distraction. The majority of the post-merger company’s expenses are now tied up in burning cash for xAI — leaving SpaceX, which had already been burning through billions of dollars each year itself, in an even more precarious position.
With those more-than-lofty ambitions come some tough questions. Perhaps most glaringly, the Financial Times‘ Richard Waters asks in a new piece, is whether SpaceX will be able to justify its unprecedented valuation five or ten years from now.
Even for Musk, it’s an aggressive price-to-earnings ratio that could blow up in his face if investors start to lose faith. The conversation surrounding plans for shorting SpaceX is hitting a fever pitch, setting the stage for what could be a wild stock market ride.
Adding to the drama is that now that SpaceX has transformed into an AI company, analysts are becoming antsy that the massive IPO, alongside OpenAI and Anthropic’s, could place even more strain on an already bloated Wall Street. Could its stock market debut be the straw that broke the camel’s back, bursting the bubble by dissipating all of that pent-up excitement?
If Musk’s EV maker Tesla is anything to go by, SpaceX’s business fundamentals likely won’t be a major factor. Tesla’s sky-high valuation has long been propped up by promises of a humanoid robot and autonomous driving-filled future, while the company’s actual revenue has lagged far behind.
Meanwhile, SpaceX has relied heavily on its satellite communications network for revenue, a business that has only started to make a dent in its enormous expenditures. The company also remains heavily reliant on lucrative government contracts.
Musk’s other money pit, X-formerly-Twitter and xAI, has also been blended into SpaceX, making for an even more explosive mix if things were to go south.
Put it all together, and SpaceX’s IPO is unlikely to change the fact that Musk isn’t selling a money-making proposition to retail investors — it’s a dream of a distant future that simply doesn’t exist yet. Experts remain skeptical of the concept of orbital centers, tech that remains entirely unproven.
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