GoKawiilWhy we misunderstand odds and why it matters
Everyone has a weakness. A blind spot. A vulnerability.
For Achilles, it was his heel. Superman had kryptonite. Ted Williams struggled with pitches low and away.
But what about the average person?
I often think our Achilles heel is our inability to understand probabilities. And increasingly, it’s making us more stressed than ever.
I was reminded of this recently after speaking with a young man who is navigating the college admissions process. He had been accepted to several very good universities, but not his first choice, which happens to accept fewer than 6% of applicants.
In an attempt to alleviate some of his angst, I asked him a simple question:
“How many high schools do you think there are in the United States?”
He guessed 12,000.
The actual number is closer to 25,000.
... continue reading