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No single rule explains how climate affects carbon storage in tropical forests

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Why This Matters

This research highlights the complexity of how climate influences carbon storage in tropical forests, emphasizing that there is no single rule applicable across regions. Understanding these nuanced interactions is crucial for improving predictions of forest responses to climate change and their role in carbon sequestration. This insight can help refine conservation strategies and climate models, ultimately benefiting both the environment and policy planning.

Key Takeaways

Tropical forests are some of Earth’s largest carbon reservoirs, yet they differ enormously in how much biomass they produce, and therefore in how much carbon they store1. Understanding this variation is important to predict how these ecosystems might respond to climate change, and whether they will keep slowing the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But despite decades of research, ecologists still disagree about which climate factors matter most for tropical forests. Writing in Nature, Nunes et al.2 show that climate effects on tropical-forest biomass differ from one region to another. And even within regions, the main driver changes depending on local conditions. The findings suggest that ecologists’ disagreements have arisen because these researchers have been looking for the wrong thing: a single rule that explains how climate affects biomass in tropical forests.

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-026-02291-0

References Pan, Y. et al. Nature 631, 563–569 (2024). Nunes, M. H., Muller-Landau, H. C., Gorgens, E., Pascual, A. & Dubayah, R. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10880-2 (2026). Muller-Landau, H. C. et al. New Phytol. 229, 3065–3087 (2021). Duncanson, L. et al. Remote Sens. Environ. 270, 112845 (2022). Sullivan, M. J. P. et al. Science 368, 869–874 (2020). Gora, E. M. et al. Ecol. Lett. 28, e70157 (2025). King, D. A., Davies, S. J. & Noor, N. S. M. For. Ecol. Mgmt 223, 152–158 (2006). Malik, N., Edwards, D. & Freckleton, R. P. Ecol. Evol. 15, e70784 (2025). Chambers, J. Q. et al. Nature 649, 1190–1196 (2026). Download references

Competing Interests The authors declare no competing interests.

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