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Numerous scandals this year have sparked a public inquiry into government and military insider trading on prediction markets. In some cases, arrests have been made.
But a new investigation by the nonprofit research group Anti-Corruption Data Collective suggests the corruption may be even more rampant than we thought. Reuters reports that the analysis found that more than 150 wallets on Polymarket may have traded on inside US military information — with experts fearing that the practice could be compromising military secrets.
Polymarket didn’t respond to Reuters‘ requests for comment.
In the analysis, the ACDC focused on “long-shot” bets, which it defines as wagers of at least $2,500 at odds at 35 percent or less, guaranteeing an outsized payout if successful. After analyzing all settled markets through May 5, it found 566 wallets that it’s dubbed “orcas,” which is a reference to the selective and intentional hunting techniques of killer whales. These so-called “orcas” typically placed a lucrative long-shot bet on a freshly made account, before cashing out and disappearing.
They’ve been incredibly successful. Of those orca accounts, the ACDC found 152 that bet on military markets with an average win rate of 97.2 percent, racking up $8 million in all. Many of these wallets had not been flagged by other researchers and media, the ACDC said.
While there are likely other accounts profiting off inside military information with smaller bets and over a longer period of time, it added, these orca accounts are likely the most flagrant culprits.
Beyond the dubious ethics of literal war pofiteering, the ACDC warns that this could expose military secrets. Like sharks smelling blood in the water, eagle-eyed market watchers notice these suspicious long-shot bets and incite a feeding frenzy of copycat wagers, drawing attention to the outcomes they’re predicting. According to the ACDC, when one orca bet on US military action in Iran hours before it began bombing the country, two copycat bettors made wagers of $200,000 and $100,000 each.
“Most people vastly underestimate how observable unusual betting activity actually is on Polymarket. It’s all right there on the internet, and we can see clear signs that big traders and bots are copying potential insider trades,” ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi told Reuters. “It would be naive to think foreign-intelligence agencies aren’t monitoring these markets.”
Polymarket bets have a habit of defying the odds. The ACDC previously found that a staggering 52 percent of long-shot bets on military action made on the platform are successful — compared to a win rate of just 14 percent across all markets on the platform.
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