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For the First Time in Decades, Not Having a College Degree Beats Having a Degree in the Job Market

2026-09-08 | original

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Why This Matters

For the first time in decades, young workers without college degrees are outperforming their degreed peers in relative job-market momentum, per a Burning Glass Institute analysis. The likely drivers — AI absorbing entry-level white-collar tasks while skilled trades face worker shortages — suggest a structural shift, not a blip, in how the tech economy absorbs new talent.

Key Takeaways

Unemployment for 22-34 year olds without degrees is near decades-long lows, while degree holders are in one of their worst stretches.
AI is eating the entry-level tasks companies once hired new graduates to do, just as record numbers graduate.
Degrees still pay off in absolute terms: 2.7% unemployment vs. 4.7% for high-school-only workers.

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Workers ages 22 to 34 with no college degree are seeing some of their lowest unemployment rates in decades. Meanwhile, their degree-holding compatriots are having one of their worst stretches in years, according to a new analysis from the Burning Glass Institute reported by the Wall Street Journal.

“I don’t think it’s a temporary thing,” says Gad Levanon, Burning Glass’s chief economist.

The reason? Part of it comes down to basic supply and demand. Skilled trades are short on workers as older generations retire and immigration restrictions shrink the labor pool. At the same time, more Americans than ever are graduating college, right as AI takes over the entry-level tasks companies used to hire new grads to do.

The news isn’t all bad for degree holders. They still have an easier time finding work in absolute terms: their unemployment rate sits at 2.7%, compared to 4.7% for workers with only a high school diploma. But historically, those with degrees are having a bad run, while those without one are having one of their best.

Explore topics: burning glass institute college degree unemployment rate skilled trades gad levanon