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Could United Launch Alliance's money problems finally force its owners to sell?

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Why This Matters

United Launch Alliance looks increasingly like an outlier in a US launch market where every major player has bet on reusability and diversification beyond rockets. With launch itself proving to be a low-margin business infrastructure only a small slice of even SpaceX's revenue infrastructure ULA's narrow focus raises real questions about whether Boeing and Lockheed Martin will finally look to sell. For customers and the industry, it's a signal that launch alone no longer sustains a competitive space company.

Key Takeaways
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Pretty much every rocket company in the United States, save one, has embraced two fundamental tenets: reusability and diversification.

Most famously, SpaceX branched out from reusable rockets to pursue and dominate a growing spectrum of space services: cargo delivery, human spaceflight, satellite production, broadband, and, perhaps soon, orbital data centers and in-space manufacturing. Blue Origin is evolving from a pure rocket company into a satellite manufacturer, robotics developer, and, most recently, a potential competitor for SpaceX’s Starlink network.

Rocket Lab used a different approach to diversify after achieving success with its small Electron launch vehicle. The company relocated its headquarters from New Zealand to Southern California, started building spacecraft and payloads, and then went on a spree of corporate acquisitions to expand into satellite communications and take on a new role as a merchant supplier of satellite components and sensors. It’s now in a stage of advanced development of its partially reusable next-generation Neutron launch vehicle.

The list goes on. Firefly Aerospace started as a launch company and now builds Moon landers and space tugs. Relativity Space is already looking beyond rockets before ever putting anything into orbit.

They all realize an enduring truth in the space business. Launch is a low-margin business. SpaceX’s financial statements, now open to inspection after the company went public earlier this year, shine a light on this fact. Just 8 percent of the company’s $12.5 billion in revenue during the first half of this year came from launch services. Another 5 percent came from “launch and development” activities, which include SpaceX’s work on things like NASA’s lunar lander program.

SpaceX attributes the rest of its revenue to Starlink and AI. The potential of the latter is almost solely responsible for SpaceX’s post-IPO valuation of approximately $1.8 billion.