GoKawiilStudy projects most of world's glaciers will vanish by mid-21st century
A new Nature Climate Change study by Van Tricht, Zekollari, Huss and colleagues models the fate of individual glaciers worldwide using three global glacier models and multiple climate scenarios ranging from 1.5°C to 4.0°C of warming. Researchers define a glacier as extinct once its area falls below 0.01 km² or its volume drops under 1% of its original size, and their projections show extinction rates peaking around the middle of this century.
GoKawiil's interpretation of the reporting above, not reported fact.
Traditional glacier-loss metrics track total regional mass or area, but this glacier-by-glacier approach reveals how many individual ice bodies—each with local cultural, ecological, and water-resource significance—will disappear entirely. Pinpointing a mid-century extinction peak gives policymakers a clearer timeline for adaptation and underscores the urgency tied to the UN's International Year of Glacier Preservation in 2025.
- Extinction is defined as area under 0.01 km² or volume below 1% of initial size.
- Projections combine three glacier models with multiple climate scenarios from +1.5°C to +4.0°C.
- Global glacier extinctions are projected to peak in the mid-21st century.
The Ice at the End of the World" by Jon Gertner — If mapping the fate of individual glaciers hooked you, this narrative history of Greenland's ice sheet is the perfect deep dive into how scientists learned to read and measure vanishing ice. Gertner weaves expedition drama together with the modern research that underpins projections like the ones in this explorer, making the numbers feel tangible.
See The Ice at the End of the World" by Jon Gertner on Amazon → Affiliate link — we may earn a commission on purchases, at no extra cost to you. Product picked by AI based on this article; it is not a tested recommendation.Source: glacierextinction.com, 2026-09-11
Published there as: “Global Glacier Extinction Explorer”
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