GoKawiilStudy: H-2B visa cap cuts business growth without boosting jobs for Americans
Economists Michael A. Clemens and Ethan G. Lewis used the random letter-based processing of H-2B seasonal worker visa petitions by the Department of Labor to measure the impact of denying low-skill foreign labor to U.S. employers. They found that firms unlucky enough to be shut out of visas due to the annual 66,000-visa cap did not hire more American workers to fill the gap; instead, these businesses simply shrank in size.
GoKawiil's interpretation of the reporting above, not reported fact.
The finding challenges a common assumption in immigration policy debates that restricting low-skill foreign labor protects domestic jobs. Instead, it suggests such caps, first set arbitrarily in 1990 and never updated, mainly cause economic contraction for labor-dependent industries like landscaping and seafood processing, with no offsetting benefit to native workers.
- The H-2B visa cap of 66,000 was set arbitrarily in 1990 by tripling the prior year's visa count.
- Demand for H-2B visas now vastly exceeds supply, with over 136,000 requests for 33,000 slots in late 2022.
- Businesses denied visas through random lottery selection shrank rather than hiring more American workers.
Source: aeaweb.org, 2026-09-21
Published there as: “Winning the visa lottery”
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