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Space Is More Crowded Than Ever. How Much More Can It Take?

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Why This Matters

With nearly 17,000 active satellites now in orbit—driven largely by mega-constellations like Starlink—the risk of collisions and a runaway debris cascade (Kessler syndrome) is becoming a pressing concern for the tech and space industries. New tracking technologies, like LeoLabs' portable Scout-S radar, are emerging to monitor this congestion, but technical limits and geopolitical distrust are hampering efforts to keep space safe and usable for everyone.

Key Takeaways
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Key takeaways

Orbital congestion: Nearly 17,000 active satellites raise serious concerns about potential orbital collisions and Kessler syndrome.

Nearly 17,000 active satellites raise serious concerns about potential orbital collisions and Kessler syndrome. Tracking technology: Ground-based portable radars and in-orbit cameras monitor space debris, though tracking objects under 10 centimeters remains difficult.

Ground-based portable radars and in-orbit cameras monitor space debris, though tracking objects under 10 centimeters remains difficult. Communication barriers: The main obstacle to space safety is the lack of open data sharing among competing entities and adversarial nations.

Walking inside LeoLabs’ new space radar nestled in the Maui hills felt like entering a computer. Wires dangled overhead, servers whined, and the temperature climbed in the metal box as the air conditioning leaked out when we entered.

“You don’t want to be in there when the whole thing’s running,” said Matthew Adelman, LeoLabs’ senior manager of radar systems. “Not just for the safety, but also for the noise.”

Called Scout-S, this radar designed to track space objects is the size of a 20-foot shipping container and can be transported anywhere in the world. You can hook it up to an electrical grid and fiber internet, but its real calling card is portability. You could drop the Scout-S off-grid and have it running in a couple of hours. All you need is a generator and a Starlink dish to feed the radar’s data back to a computer.

I couldn’t help but appreciate the irony at the mention of the Starlink dish: The satellite internet service revolutionized the space industry, but it also jump-started a race to space that created the need for transportable radars like the Scout-S.

The Soviet Union launched the world’s first satellite in 1957; it would take another 53 years for the population to pass 1,000. When Starlink launched its first satellite in 2019, there were still only around 2,000 orbiting Earth. Today, we’re at 16,810, and nearly 2 out of every 3 belong to Starlink.

Each one of them is zooming above us at 17,000 mph. A collision between two of them could range from extremely troubling to catastrophic. Worst-case scenario, satellites colliding with each other or a piece of space debris could set off a feedback loop known as Kessler syndrome, in which one collision creates thousands of new pieces of debris that cause yet more collisions. It could ultimately make low Earth orbit, or LEO, the sweet spot where Starlink beams down fast, low-latency internet from 342 miles over our heads, so filled with space junk that it’s no longer usable.

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