GoKawiilForecasters warn 2024's El Niño could be the strongest ever recorded
Climate scientists tracking 14 forecasting models report that central Pacific sea surface temperatures are running about 2.9°C above the 30-year average, more than 1°C hotter than at the same point in the record 1997 and 2015 El Niño events. Models now give a greater than 90% probability that this year's El Niño will exceed every event recorded since the 1870s, raising fears of severe drought, flooding, wildfires and coral bleaching worldwide.
GoKawiil's interpretation of the reporting above, not reported fact.
El Niño's regional effects are predictable, and southern Africa faces roughly an 80% chance of a failed rainy season, a pattern that has previously cut South Africa's maize harvest nearly in half and pushed the Zambezi River to record lows. Because planting season begins within weeks, governments, aid agencies and health bodies have a narrow window to stockpile food, adjust crop plans and prepare disaster response before the impacts cascade.
- Pacific sea surface temperatures are already over 1°C warmer than during the 1997 and 2015 super El Niños
- Models give over 90% odds this event surpasses all recorded since the 1870s
- Southern Africa faces an 80% chance of severe drought, threatening harvests within weeks
Source: nature.com — Hausfather, 2026-09-22
Published there as: “The worst El Niño in recorded history is brewing — here’s how governments must prepare”
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