GoKawiilCESifo study finds no rise in unemployment for recent college grads despite AI adoption
A new analysis from Munich's CESifo institute examined US Census Bureau data on bachelor's degree holders aged 22-25 not enrolled in further education, finding a summer 2026 unemployment rate of 7.3% — within the range seen since 2022. Researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu tracked summer figures from 2022 through 2026, spanning the release and adoption of ChatGPT, and found the rate has fluctuated between 6.3% and 7.8% over that period without a clear worsening trend.
GoKawiil's interpretation of the reporting above, not reported fact.
The findings push back against widespread concern that generative AI is already displacing entry-level office workers, and contrast with a Stanford University study that found weaker employment for young workers in AI-exposed occupations. Because reduced hiring of new graduates would likely be an early signal of AI's labor impact, the absence of such a signal here suggests any disruption may be slower or smaller than some fear, though the researchers' broader test including discouraged job-seekers did not change the picture.
- CESifo found recent grad unemployment at 7.3% in summer 2026, in line with 2022-2025 levels.
- The result contradicts fears that AI is already cutting entry-level hiring for routine office tasks.
- It also diverges from a Stanford study showing weaker outcomes for young workers in AI-exposed jobs.
Source: techspot.com — Skye Jacobs, 2026-09-26
Published there as: “The AI job apocalypse hasn't hit recent college grads, at least not yet”
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