GoKawiilTrendForce forecasts 2027 laptop shipment decline, slower shift from China manufacturing
TrendForce's latest report projects global notebook shipments will fall by a low single-digit percentage in 2027, driven by weaker consumer demand rather than component shortages. The research firm also expects the share of notebook production outside China to shrink from 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026, and potentially below 20% in 2027, as rising costs make offshore manufacturing less appealing. TrendForce notes that CPU, DRAM, and SSD prices currently make up about 68% of the bill-of-materials cost for a typical $900 notebook.
GoKawiil's interpretation of the reporting above, not reported fact.
The forecast suggests that component price pressures could force manufacturers to choose between raising retail prices, cutting into profit margins, or reducing specifications like memory capacity—any of which could dent competitiveness. It also implies that some 2026 demand may simply be pulled forward from 2027 as buyers upgrade early in anticipation of price hikes, which could leave 2027 demand even weaker than expected. The slowing diversification away from Chinese manufacturing, if it continues, could complicate efforts by some brands and countries to reduce reliance on Chinese production.
- TrendForce expects global notebook shipments to decline by a low single-digit percentage in 2027.
- Share of notebook production outside China is projected to fall from 24% (2025) to below 20% (2027) as costs rise.
- CPU, DRAM, and SSD prices make up roughly 68% of a $900 notebook's bill of materials, pressuring manufacturer margins and pricing decisions.
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Published there as: “TrendForce expects declining global laptop shipments to slow manufacturing exodus from China”
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