GoKawiilQuilty Space report: non-China launch shortfall could hit 150 missions by 2030
Analytics firm Quilty Space estimates that, excluding China, global rocket supply will fall about 150 launches short of satellite and civil-agency demand between now and 2030. The firm says adding US military demand—without SpaceX extending Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy production—could roughly double that gap. Quilty's research director Caleb Henry said the shortage is worse than previously thought and may not ease until the late 2030s, peaking around 2028.
GoKawiil's interpretation of the reporting above, not reported fact.
The findings suggest operators who haven't already secured launch contracts may face years of delays, which could slow deployment of megaconstellations like Amazon's and smaller satellite startups' plans. Henry's comment that he has no clear advice for companies signals how unpredictable the situation is, implying pricing and scheduling pressure could persist industry-wide well into the next decade.
- Quilty Space projects a ~150-launch shortfall outside China through 2030.
- Adding US military demand without expanded Falcon 9/Heavy capacity could roughly double the shortfall.
- The crunch is expected to peak around 2028 and possibly not ease until the late 2030s.
Source: arstechnica.com, 2026-10-30
Published there as: “Analysts find looming launch crisis is "more severe" than anticipated”
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