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How often is the query plan optimal?

The basic promise of a query optimizer is that it picks the “optimal” query plan. But there’s a catch - the plan selection relies on cost estimates, calculated from selectivity estimates and cost of basic resources (I/O, CPU, …). So the question is, how often do we actually pick the “fastest” plan? And the truth is we actually make mistakes quite often. Consider the following chart, with durations of a simple SELECT query with a range condition. The condition is varied to match different fracti