TL;DR Counterpoint Research expects Apple to overtake Samsung in smartphone sales this year and keep the top spot through 2029.
iPhone shipments are projected to jump 10% in 2025, while Samsung’s Galaxy lineup grows only 4.6%.
Analysts say that pandemic-era upgrades, a weaker dollar, easing U.S.–China tensions, and improving demand in price-sensitive regions all boost Apple’s momentum.
Samsung has led global smartphone sales for over a decade, but its dominance is now at risk. According to Counterpoint Research, Apple is on track to overtake Samsung this year and remain the world’s top smartphone maker through 2029.
Projections from the market research firm indicate that iPhone shipments are expected to grow by approximately 10% in 2025, while Samsung’s Galaxy line shipments are estimated to increase by only 4.6%. That’s a major gap for two companies often assumed neck-and-neck. On a global level, Apple is projected to grab around 19.4% of total smartphone shipments this year — a threshold not seen since 2011 (via Bloomberg).
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Counterpoint Research says the real accelerant behind Apple’s climb is the new iPhone 17 lineup, which blends a redesigned chassis, a new custom A-series chipset built for on-device AI, and deeper cloud intelligence across iOS. The new models have resonated with buyers across both mature markets like the US and major emerging markets.
Analyst Yang Wang said that this release, combined with the natural upgrade cycle of phones bought during the pandemic, pushed iPhone demand into higher gear. Other factors also contributed to Apple’s success, including a weaker dollar, reduced tension between the US and China, and increased demand in markets where price is a key consideration.
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