A new TrendForce report outlines the challenges notebook makers are expected to face in 2026, with surging memory prices chief among them. Apple, however, is expected to be less exposed. Here are the details.
Apple less exposed to market-wide memory constraints
TrendForce has revised its forecast for the notebook market for 2026, lowering its prediction to 173 million unit shipments, a 5.4% drop when compared with 2025.
From the report:
TrendForce’s recent findings show that, amid a sluggish economic recovery and cautious consumer spending, surging memory prices are squeezing notebook brands’ profit margins and pricing freedom. Consequently, TrendForce has reduced its 2026 global projection for notebook shipments to a 5.4% YoY decrease, totaling around 173 million units. This shift indicates a more conservative approach by brands toward inventory management, promotions, and product setups in response to increasing cost pressures.
The report also notes that if memory constraints don’t improve, the shipment drop could hit 10.1%, although Apple could be less exposed than its competitors:
Despite increasing memory costs, [Apple’s] integrated supply chain and robust pricing power allow for greater flexibility in adjusting its product lineup. Additionally, Apple’s substantial and steady procurement volumes, along with a clear product release schedule and highly predictable demand planning, facilitate securing priority cooperation with memory suppliers.
TrendForce notes that despite the bad timing, Apple is expected to benefit from “ongoing supply chain efficiencies, scale benefits” when it introduces what has been reported as a low-cost MacBook in the spring of 2026:
“[…] competitive pricing should help the product attract buyers, boosting market penetration and sustained shipment performance.”
Finally, the report notes that while LCD panel shipments are expected to fall 7.9% year over year in 2026, OLED shipments should continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace.
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