Preface
What if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that’s actually bearish?
What follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn’t bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored. Our friend Alap Shah posed the question, and together we brainstormed the answer. We wrote this part, and he’s written two others you can find here.
Hopefully, reading this leaves you more prepared for potential left tail risks as AI makes the economy increasingly weird.
This is the CitriniResearch Macro Memo from June 2028, detailing the progression and fallout of the Global Intelligence Crisis.
Macro Memo
The Consequences of Abundant Intelligence
CitriniResearch
February 22nd, 2026 June 30th, 2028
The unemployment rate printed 10.2% this morning, a 0.3% upside surprise. The market sold off 2% on the number, bringing the cumulative drawdown in the S&P to 38% from its October 2026 highs.
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