Prediction markets are fueling a new era of political graft

Kalshi and Polymarket say they leverage the wisdom of the crowd. Instead, they’ve created a lucrative way for politicians and campaign staffers to treat inside info like a day-trading asset. In the days leading up to the 2026 State of the Union, George Santos was acting—at least in public—like a man preparing to take a victory lap. In October 2025, President Donald Trump had commuted the former Republican congressman’s 87-month federal prison sentence, which he’d received in April 2025 after pleading guilty to various forms of campaign funds-adjacent fraud. Four short months later, on X, Santos began teasing his triumphant return to the chamber from which he’d been expelled two years earlier.