GoKawiilA new TrendForce report says MacBook price hikes will contribute to a 13.6% drop in global laptop shipments, although Apple is still expected to outperform the broader market. Here are the details.
Higher MacBook prices reshape Apple’s outlook for 2026
According to TrendForce, Apple’s recent price increases across the MacBook lineup have reshaped market expectations, showing that even premium brands are no longer insulated from memory shortages and rising component costs.
The report adds that higher MacBook prices could push some price-sensitive buyers toward premium Windows laptops, although the broader impact is expected to be limited:
TrendForce notes that higher MacBook prices may narrow the price overlap between MacBooks and certain premium Windows notebooks, encouraging some price-sensitive consumers to switch to Windows devices. Nevertheless, with notebook prices rising across the board and overall consumer demand weakening, this spillover effect is expected to be limited and is unlikely to become a meaningful driver of broader market recovery.
As for what the recent price hikes might mean in numbers, TrendForce predicts that Apple will ship 23.1 million notebooks in 2026, despite demand softening in the second half of the year.
The report notes that stronger-than-expected first-half shipments should still allow Apple to “achieve double-digit year-over-year growth” for the year, supported by Apple Silicon-driven upgrades and the company’s “robust macOS ecosystem.”
From the report:
Stronger-than-expected first-half demand also means that a portion of second-half demand has effectively been pulled forward, leaving less demand to support the market later in the year. As rising component costs are gradually passed through to retail prices, signs of weakening consumer demand have begun to emerge. TrendForce notes that several notebook brands have already experienced softer consumer demand. This is particularly noticeable in the entry-level and mainstream segments, where price sensitivity has become increasingly evident.
Looking ahead, TrendForce expects sustained demand for AI servers to keep straining memory capacity and advanced semiconductor resources, maintaining pressure on component costs. Combined with growing consumer resistance to higher prices, those constraints are expected to drive a 13.6% decline in global laptop shipments for the year.
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