GoKawiilA high-amplitude upper-level ridge is locking the fifth major Heat Dome of the season over continental Europe, pushing widespread afternoon temperatures past 40 °C as mid-August begins. Driven by a powerful northward warm surge, upper-air thermal anomalies will once again climb into the 99th percentile, bringing severe excessive heat across France, the UK, Italy, Central Europe, and the Balkan Peninsula.
The primary atmospheric engine behind this 5th thermal wave is a stubborn high-pressure ridge parked over the heart of the continent. As sinking air adiabatically compresses and warms the lower troposphere, peak surface temperatures across low-lying basins and plains are forecast to reach 40 °C to 43 °C, with dry continental winds keeping humidity low and rapidly depleting soil moisture.
This renewed thermal surge offers minimal nocturnal relief, as overnight low temperatures refuse to drop below 22 °C to 26 °C across major urban corridors. The lack of nighttime cooling compounds severe physiological stress for millions of residents, skyrockets energy grid demand, and maintains extreme wildfire conditions across southwestern and central Europe.
The strongest temperature anomalies are forecast across Western and Central Europe throughout the rest of this week, projected to gradually vanish from west to east late this weekend and the following week. We can see the midrange forecast for Paris, France and Prague, Czech Republic on the following chart.
Temperatures across Iberia, France, Italy and the Balkans are peaking into the mid to upper 30s this week, and they will become higher as mid-August arrives.
Forecast model animation maps below illustrate the expansion of this 5th upper-level ridge and highlight where the highest 850 hPa temperature anomalies will focus over the coming days.
Before we dig into details, let’s examine what the Heat Dome is and why it is important to understand its dynamics.
Atmospheric Dynamics: How High-Pressure Heat Domes Compress and Trap Air
When significant, record-breaking heatwaves occurred in the United States, Canada, and Europe in the past, the Heat Dome was a contributing factor. The heat dome is usually the dominant feature of summer weather patterns on both continents.
We refer to this phenomenon as a heat dome when extremely high temperatures develop. Here’s how it works and why understanding it on a broader scale is essential. The upper-level ridge pattern, or very warm air mass in the higher altitudes, also known as the Upper High (or blocking High), usually forms the heat dome. This weather pattern brings high, and sometimes record-breaking, temperatures to the region below.
... continue reading