GoKawiil1960 Science paper's 'Doomsday' population prediction nears its Nov 2026 date
In November 1960, physicist Heinz von Foerster and two colleagues at the University of Illinois published a paper in Science titled 'Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026,' extrapolating from historical population data to predict humanity's growth rate would reach a mathematical infinity on that date. The New York Times covered the paper at the time, noting that von Foerster picked a Friday the 13th within the calculated error range, which also happened to be his birthday. Demographers criticized the model's assumptions, and actual population growth did not follow the predicted trajectory.
GoKawiil's interpretation of the reporting above, not reported fact.
The resurfacing of this 65-year-old prediction as its target date approaches offers a reminder of how extrapolating trends without accounting for real-world feedback (like declining birth rates) can produce dramatic but misleading forecasts. It also illustrates a recurring media pattern of covering provocative scientific claims that defy later demographic reality, which could prompt renewed public interest in how population models are built and critiqued today.
- A 1960 Science paper predicted human population would reach infinity around November 13, 2026.
- The specific date was chosen partly because it was a Friday the 13th and the author's birthday.
- Demographers at the time criticized the model, and actual global population trends have not matched the prediction.
Source: science.slashdot.org, 2026-10-09
Published there as: “A 1960 Paper Published In Science Predicts World Will End Next Month”
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