GoKawiil
Tech News
A 1960 Science paper by Heinz von Foerster used a hyperbolic growth model to predict that human population would reach mathematical infinity on November 13, 2026. Instead, global population is projected to be about 8.3 billion by mid-2026, roughly in line with conventional demographic trends rather than the runaway trajectory the model implied.
In November 1960, physicist Heinz von Foerster and two colleagues at the University of Illinois published a paper in Science titled 'Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026,' extrapolating from historical population data to predict humanity's growth rate would reach a mathematical infinity on that date. The New York Times covered the paper at the time, noting that von Foerster picked a Friday the 13th within the calculated error range, which also happened to be his birthday. Demographers criticized the model's assumptions, and actual population growth did not follow the predicted trajectory.
A 1960 paper published in the journal Science used a mathematical model of human population growth to calculate that global population would reach infinity—a theoretical 'doomsday'—on November 13, 2026. The researchers based the projection on historical population growth trends extrapolated into the future.