GoKawiilPolymarket's Ethiopia and related election markets rack up $600M in trades after voting ended
Analysis of Polymarket's offshore platform found two global election markets generated over $600 million in trading volume, with most activity concentrated on long-shot candidates who lost. In Ethiopia's election, where incumbent Abiy Ahmed won decisively, only $173,000 was bet on his victory while more than $41 million was traded on his chief of staff winning instead, part of over $285 million wagered overwhelmingly on losing outcomes. Former Polymarket trader Chris Park found that roughly $284 million of that volume came from pairs of accounts repeatedly trading with each other.
GoKawiil's interpretation of the reporting above, not reported fact.
The pattern suggests prediction markets can be used to generate artificial trading volume rather than reflect genuine belief about outcomes, which could undermine their reputation as reliable gauges of public sentiment. Economist Rajiv Sethi describes the activity as apparent volume manipulation, raising questions about how exchanges monitor and police wash trading. If such manipulation goes unchecked, it could erode trust in prediction markets just as they gain mainstream attention as alternatives to polling.
- Two Polymarket election markets saw over $600 million in trading volume, much of it on losing candidates.
- In Ethiopia's election, $41 million was bet on a losing contender versus $173,000 on the actual winner.
- Researchers say roughly $284 million came from paired accounts trading back and forth, a sign of possible manipulation.
Source: arstechnica.com, 2026-10-16
Published there as: “Polymarket saw $600 million in election trades after the elections were over”
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