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DraftKings lowered its 2026 financial guidance, citing competition from prediction-market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. The Boston-based sports-betting company is simultaneously increasing its own investment in prediction-style offerings to compete in that space. Shares fell sharply following the announcement.
Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of prediction market exchange Kalshi and now the world's youngest self-made female billionaire with a $2.6 billion net worth per Forbes, said on a podcast that many capable founders undermine themselves by becoming fixated on calculating probabilities before acting. She argued that excessive focus on odds can paralyze decision-making, and that believing things will work out and taking the risk is essential to starting a business.
A data scientist at Northwestern University has built a platform that pulls betting data from prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, then runs statistical simulations to forecast election outcomes. The tool refreshes every 10 minutes and is currently being used to track projections for control of the U.S. Senate.
Utah's Attorney General Derek Brown filed 14 criminal charges against Kalshi co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, alleging the company promoted illegal gambling disguised as prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission responded by suing Utah, asserting it holds exclusive federal jurisdiction over CFTC-registered prediction markets like Kalshi.
Utah has brought 14 criminal charges against prediction market Kalshi and two executives, CEO Tarek Mansour and COO Luana Lopes Lara, including 12 counts tied to illegally promoting online gambling, according to the Salt Lake Tribune and Associated Press. Kalshi called the action a "crazy overreach" and said it plans to fight the charges in court, citing a prior legal win in Arizona.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sued Utah to block the state from enforcing its gambling ban against Kalshi, marking the tenth state the agency has sued on the platform's behalf. The move follows Utah's own lawsuit seeking to bar Kalshi from offering bets on sports, elections and politics, after Utah previously won a related federal case against Kalshi.
The NBA has struck multi-year commercial agreements naming Kalshi and Polymarket as its 'Preferred Prediction Market Exchanges,' following similar moves by MLB and NHL. The deals set up a data-sharing framework meant to flag suspicious betting patterns and include a Memorandum of Understanding with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, since prediction markets fall under federal rather than state oversight.
The NBA has signed agreements designating Kalshi and Polymarket as its official preferred prediction market exchanges, allowing both platforms to use that title in their marketing. The league also reached an agreement involving a federal agency responsible for regulating these prediction markets.
A researcher named Jared Holt shared a photo of a fortune cookie slip that read 'Yes, we paid for a fortune cookie ad' with a QR code linking to prediction market Polymarket. The image spread widely across Bluesky and X, drawing anger from users who called it a new low in advertising. It remains unclear whether Polymarket directly arranged the ad or used a third-party firm, and the company has not yet responded to requests for comment.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a memo prohibiting Department of War personnel from using nonpublic information to place bets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, warning that financial stakes could compromise military judgment and operational security. Violations could trigger administrative, disciplinary, or criminal action under military and federal law. The memo follows earlier White House warnings after suspicious, highly-timed bets on an Iran ceasefire and a Trump aide's reported $100,000 win betting on the president's remarks.
Webull announced on October 20 that it will offer Bitcoin perpetual futures to its roughly 6 million US clients starting in November. The product, pioneered by crypto exchanges, lets traders hold leveraged long or short positions with no expiration date, using a funding-rate mechanism to keep contract prices aligned with spot Bitcoin. Webull did not disclose specific funding rates, margin requirements, or contract specifications in its announcement.
Utah officials allege prediction-market operator Kalshi ran an unlicensed gambling operation in the state, estimating the company collected as much as $61.2 million in fees from wagers placed by Utah users. The state is pursuing financial penalties tied to those allegedly illegal transactions.