GoKawiilNorthwestern data scientist builds live election-forecast tool using prediction-market data
A data scientist at Northwestern University has built a platform that pulls betting data from prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, then runs statistical simulations to forecast election outcomes. The tool refreshes every 10 minutes and is currently being used to track projections for control of the U.S. Senate.
GoKawiil's interpretation of the reporting above, not reported fact.
Prediction markets have drawn growing attention as an alternative to traditional polling, and tools like this could make that market data more accessible and interpretable to the public in real time. The approach suggests a shift toward using financial betting behavior, rather than survey responses, as a signal for political forecasting, though its accuracy compared to polls remains untested at scale.
- A Northwestern data scientist created a near real-time election forecasting tool
- The platform draws data from prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket
- It updates every 10 minutes and is tracking Senate control projections
Source: fastcompany.com, 2026-11-02
Published there as: “This election forecast tool updates every 10 minutes. Here’s what it’s predicting about Democrats’ chances”
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