Analysis of Polymarket's offshore platform found two global election markets generated over $600 million in trading volume, with most activity concentrated on long-shot candidates who lost. In Ethiopia's election, where incumbent Abiy Ahmed won decisively, only $173,000 was bet on his victory while more than $41 million was traded on his chief of staff winning instead, part of over $285 million wagered overwhelmingly on losing outcomes. Former Polymarket trader Chris Park found that roughly $284 million of that volume came from pairs of accounts repeatedly trading with each other.
arstechnica.com
· 2026-10-16
Analysis by former Polymarket trader Chris Park found that two Polymarket election markets—covering Ethiopia's recent elections and another global race—generated over $600 million in trading volume, with most bets placed on candidates who ultimately lost. In Ethiopia's case, about $285 million was wagered, with roughly $284 million of that stemming from pairs of accounts repeatedly trading with each other rather than genuine independent bettors.
wired.com
· 2026-10-15
Former Senator Blanche Lincoln, who helped write Dodd-Frank provisions letting regulators ban sports-event betting on prediction markets, has been lobbying Congress and the CFTC since 2024 on behalf of Kalshi to allow such wagers. The 2010 law left the decision to the executive branch; the Biden administration restricted sports-based contracts, while the Trump administration has moved to permit them and is contesting state efforts to regulate prediction markets.
futurism.com
· 2026-10-10
The National Council on Problem Gambling accepted a $2 million donation from prediction platform Kalshi, finalized by executive director Heather Maurer without full board approval and under a non-disclosure agreement. The arrangement triggered backlash from board members and state gambling regulators, many of whom left the organization, and Maurer ultimately resigned.
futurism.com
· 2026-10-10
The NFL filed a brief supporting New Jersey's request for the Supreme Court to clarify whether states or the CFTC regulate prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The league said $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded on such platforms on the first Sunday of this season involved NFL games, and argued states are better equipped to oversee these markets as gambling-like products. Kalshi disputed the claim, saying the CFTC is actively regulating sports-related contracts through ongoing rulemaking.
fastcompany.com
· 2026-10-09
Blanche Lincoln, who once helped craft legislation to restrict sports betting on prediction markets, is now lobbying the CFTC to permit such betting on Kalshi’s platform. Since 2024, she has received $480,000 from Kalshi for her efforts to ease regulation of event contracts, reversing her previous stance against unregulated gambling activities.
arstechnica.com
· 2026-10-08
Luana Lopes Lara, COO of Kalshi, asserts that prediction markets provide more truthful insights than traditional polls. The platform, valued at $22 billion after rapid growth, is currently facing a lawsuit from New York’s attorney general seeking $36 billion. Lara emphasizes Kalshi’s distinction from sportsbooks despite most trading volume being sports-related and discusses what their data indicates about recent midterm elections.
fastcompany.com
· 2026-10-08
Thomas, a former sports bettor from Pennsylvania, who accumulated over $50,000 in online sportsbook debt and filed for bankruptcy, self-excluded from DraftKings and FanDuel. After discovering Kalshi through an Instagram ad, he was drawn into a new form of betting on prediction markets, which he found difficult to resist despite initial intentions to quit gambling. His experience highlights how new platforms can attract individuals seeking alternative gambling outlets after bans or financial setbacks.
npr.org
· 2026-10-05
CBS News, now led by editor-in-chief Bari Weiss, has signed a partnership with prediction-market platform Kalshi to use its betting data in coverage of upcoming elections. The deal follows similar data arrangements CNN and CNBC have struck with prediction-market firms.
futurism.com
· 2026-10-03
A unanimous three-judge panel on the US Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit ruled that Kalshi's sports-event contracts do not qualify as federally regulated swaps, meaning Ohio and Tennessee can enforce their own gambling laws against the platform. The decision upheld a lower court ruling against Kalshi in Ohio and reversed a prior Tennessee ruling that had favored the company. The court also said that even if the contracts were swaps, federal law would not block states from applying their gambling statutes.
arstechnica.com
· 2026-09-28
The Wall Street Journal reports that fraudsters exploited Polymarket by placing wagers with stolen debit card information, then withdrawing winnings into accounts they controlled. A payment processor working with Polymarket flagged the scheme as early as February, rejecting over 80 percent of incoming transactions as fraudulent — far above the roughly 1 percent industry norm — with attempted fraud totaling at least $10 million.
futurism.com
· 2026-09-26
The Wall Street Journal reports that a payment processor working with Polymarket flagged widespread use of stolen debit cards to place bets on the platform starting as early as February. Fraudsters allegedly used stolen financial data to wager and then withdrew winnings through other payment channels, with the processor rejecting more than 80 percent of transactions as fraudulent, far above the roughly 1 percent industry norm.
futurism.com
· 2026-09-26
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