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Kalshi, an online prediction market, announced it has permanently banned former Republican Congressman George Santos after determining he likely used insider knowledge to profit from a bet against his own attendance at the State of the Union address. The company said this marks the first permanent ban it has ever issued.
Prediction market Kalshi has permanently banned former congressman George Santos and fined him $71,356, marking the platform's first-ever lifetime ban. Santos had allegedly profited over $17,500 by betting he'd skip the State of the Union due to travel issues, then selling those contracts after claiming publicly he would attend. Kalshi says it flagged the scheme to regulators and imposed the harsher penalty because Santos failed to cooperate fully with its internal investigation.
Kalshi issued its first-ever lifetime ban against former Rep. George Santos and fined him $71,356 for insider trading and market manipulation. Santos had placed bets on whether he'd attend Trump's February 2026 State of the Union address, then posted misleading claims about attending to move contract prices before revealing he was actually at an airport. Kalshi froze his account and referred the case to the CFTC, which he settled with earlier this summer for $35,000.
A federal appeals court ruled Friday that Nevada may enforce its gambling statutes against Kalshi's sports-related prediction contracts, rejecting the company's claim that CFTC oversight shields it from state gaming law. The Ninth Circuit panel called Kalshi's sports event contracts functionally identical to sportsbook bets and dismissed its attempt to distinguish them as disingenuous.
The 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals rejected Kalshi's bid to stop Nevada from regulating its prediction market operations, siding with the state's gambling regulators and attorney general who sued Kalshi in February for allegedly operating without a sports gambling license. The ruling adds to a patchwork of conflicting state and federal legal outcomes for Kalshi, which also faces action from Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York and Arizona, even as a separate court found New Jersey lacks authority to regulate the platform.
The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in a Nevada case that betting on sporting outcomes does not qualify as a federally regulated 'swap' under the Commodity Exchange Act, rejecting the broad interpretation that prediction-market firm Kalshi has relied on to argue states can't block its sports contracts. The decision undermines the reasoning Arizona federal judge Michael Liburdi used earlier this year to block Arizona's attorney general from prosecuting Kalshi under state gambling laws.
A unanimous three-judge panel on the US Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit ruled that Nevada can enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi's sports-related event contracts, rejecting the company's claim that federal commodities law shields it from state oversight. The decision upholds a lower court order allowing Nevada's Gaming Control Board to act against Kalshi, Crypto.com and Robinhood over sports-event contracts offered on their platforms.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and crypto-linked stocks extended a three-day climb, marking the sector's strongest stretch since 2023. Analysts are drawing parallels to that earlier rally as investors debate whether the momentum can hold, with commentators including Ray Dalio and forecasting platform Kalshi weighing in on possible outcomes.
Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded beyond sports and elections to let users wager on whether major companies will cut jobs in upcoming quarters. Experts say the growing volume of these markets is worth watching as a potential signal of workforce sentiment.