GoKawiilUN report: emissions nearly flat in 2025, world still on track for 2.6-2.8°C warming
The UN Environment Programme's latest annual report, released 21 October, finds global greenhouse-gas emissions were roughly unchanged between 2024 and 2025. Under current policies, scientists project warming of 2.6°C to 2.8°C by century's end, far above the Paris Agreement's 2°C ceiling, with even full implementation of existing pledges yielding 2.1°C. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the 1.5°C limit can no longer be avoided and urged faster cuts to fossil fuels alongside expanded clean electricity and reduced deforestation.
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The findings suggest that despite years of climate diplomacy, policy action has not kept pace with the scale of cuts needed, which could harden pressure on negotiators heading into COP31 in Antalya. UNEP's framing that the 1.5°C target could still be reached via 'overshoot' followed by large-scale carbon removal implies reliance on technologies that are not yet deployed at scale, a gamble researchers may view skeptically. The report's timing just before COP31 positions it as leverage for advocates pushing governments toward more ambitious commitments.
- Global emissions were roughly flat from 2024 to 2025, UNEP reports.
- Current policies put the world on track for 2.6-2.8°C of warming, exceeding the Paris Agreement's 2°C limit.
- The report precedes COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, where governments will negotiate further climate action.
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Published there as: “Global emissions slow — but world hurtles towards 2 °C of warming”
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