GoKawiilCOP31 opens in Antalya as UN confirms 1.5°C warming target will be breached
The COP31 UN climate conference began in Antalya, Turkey, for 12 days of talks, marking the first such summit since UN scientists confirmed that global warming will exceed the 1.5°C threshold set by the 2015 Paris agreement under all plausible emissions scenarios. The UN Environment Programme's recent Limiting Overshoot report said returning temperatures below 1.5°C this century will require near-zero emissions plus removal of hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO2 via technology or nature-based methods like reforestation.
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The formal acknowledgment that overshoot is now unavoidable could push negotiators to shift focus from pure emissions cuts toward large-scale carbon removal strategies, according to researcher Clea Schumer of the World Resources Institute. How governments respond may determine whether 1.5°C becomes a temporary breach to be reversed or a permanently abandoned benchmark, though only limited overshoot language appeared in last year's COP30 outcome.
- COP31 talks opened in Antalya, Turkey, running for 12 days.
- UNEP's Limiting Overshoot report is the first UN document to state 1.5°C overshoot is now inevitable.
- Reversing overshoot would require removing hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO2 this century alongside near-zero emissions.
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Published there as: “COP31 kicks off as planet faces imminent overshoot of 1.5°C climate target”
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