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David Hagelbarger

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The Aaronson Oracle: a decades-old game that predicts human 'random' choices

The piece traces a matching-pennies experiment back to engineer David Hagelbarger's 1950s Bell Labs machine SEER, which tracked only a handful of facts about recent rounds to guess a human opponent's next move better than chance. Claude Shannon built a similar device shortly after, crediting Hagelbarger's design and describing it as a simplified model of the same idea. The modern 'Aaronson Oracle' is a descendant of these relay-based machines, now implemented as software.