GoKawiilGoogle DeepMind details machine-learning system for subseasonal weather forecasting
Researchers describe a probabilistic forecasting method for predicting weather two to six weeks ahead, built on ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979-2026 and evaluated using ECMWF's AI Weather Quest competition framework. The approach forecasts temperature, precipitation and sea-level pressure as probability distributions across climatological quantile bins, scored using the Ranked Probability Skill Score.