Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically
The chance that humans will literally go extinct at the hands of AI, I told Liron Shapira, in his podcast Doom Debates in May, was low. Humans are genetically diverse, geographically diverse, and remarkably resourceful. Some humans might die, at the hands of AI, but all of them? Shapira argued that doom was likely; I pushed back. Catastrophe seemed likely; outright doom seemed to me, then, to be vanishingly unlikely. Part of my reasoning then was that actual malice on the part of AI was unlikel