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Vanishing home field advantage in English football

Do clubs playing at home win more? Home field advantage is well-known to fans of different sports and is well-supported by the data. How prevalent is it in English football? That’s what I’m going to explore in this blog post. A few years ago, I did a similar analysis, but with a much smaller data set (see https://blog.engora.com/2021/01/covid-and-soccer-home-team-advantage.html). This time, I have complete English football league data from 1888 to the 2024-2025 season, so my analysis is going

Win, lose, or draw: trends in English football match results

Is the game getting more exciting? Football (soccer) fans like to see exciting matches. Draws are boring but wins or losses are interesting; fans want to see teams give their all on the pitch. Which begs the question, is the game getting more or less thrilling over time? One way to answer this question is to look at fraction of matches in a league that end in a draw. The most boring extreme is every game is a draw (draw fraction = 1). The most engaging extreme is that every game ends in a win/l