GoKawiilMETR report says Anthropic AI R&D has roughly doubled in pace, largely due to automation
Anthropic's S1 filing stated it may soon cross a Responsible Scaling Policy threshold defining 'dramatic acceleration' of AI research due to AI itself. A METR investigation, described in a blog post by someone with partial, redacted access to the report, found that Anthropic's capabilities progress between October 2025 and October 2026 ran about twice as fast as in the prior year, measured via an internal Epoch Capabilities Index variant. The report's authors reportedly concluded that AI automation, not increased compute or other inputs, is the main driver of this faster pace, though much of their supporting evidence remains redacted.
GoKawiil's interpretation of the reporting above, not reported fact.
If accurate, this would be the first documented case of an AI lab's own research being substantially sped up by its AI systems, a milestone that could mark the start of a self-reinforcing AI development loop. Because key evidence is redacted and the author didn't see the full report, the claim can't yet be independently verified, so it should be treated as a significant but unconfirmed signal rather than settled fact. The finding could also trigger safety commitments under Anthropic's Responsible Scaling Policy, which ties specific obligations to this acceleration threshold.
- Anthropic's S1 filing said it may soon meet its own RSP threshold for 'dramatically accelerated' AI-driven research progress.
- A METR analysis reportedly found AI research pace roughly doubled over a year, attributing most of this to AI automation rather than compute increases.
- Much of the supporting evidence remains redacted, and the commentator did not view the full report, so independent verification is currently limited.
Source: planned-obsolescence.org — Ajeya Cotra, 2026-11-06
Published there as: “AI is dramatically accelerating AI research”
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