"Until we get to net-zero emissions, extreme weather will only get worse, and it's already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world,” said Maximilian Kotz, BSC researcher and lead author of the study.
British potatoes, Californian vegetables, South African maize and Indian onions are among many foods affected by recent price shocks driven by weather extremes, according to a team of international scientists.
The study, led by Maximillian Kotz of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS), investigated 16 examples across 18 countries over a two-year period (2022-2024), where price spikes were associated with extreme heat, drought or heavy precipitation events, many of which were so extreme they exceeded all historical precedent prior to 2020.
Among these examples:
In the UK, potato prices increased 22% (from Jan to Feb 2024) following extreme winter rainfall that scientists said was made 20% heavier and 10 times more likely by climate change.
In California and Arizona in the United States, vegetable prices increased 80% in November 2022 after the extreme summer drought in western states, which faced water shortages, extreme heat, and soil moisture drought conditions throughout the summer of 2022.
In Ethiopia, food prices were 40% higher in March 2023 following the 2022 drought in the Horn of Africa, the worst in 40 years, which scientists said was made "much stronger" and "about 100 times more likely" by climate change.
In Spain and Italy, the 2022-2023 drought in southern Europe, for which scientists said "global warming contributed for more than 30% of the (2022 summer) drought intensity and its spatial extent via enhanced evaporation", drove an increase in the price of olive oil of 50% year-on-year across the EU by January 2024, on top of price increases the previous year. Spain produces over two fifths of the world's olive oil.
Global cocoa prices were almost 300% (280%) higher in April 2024 following the heatwave in Ivory Coast and Ghana just two months earlier, which scientists said was made 4 ∘ C hotter by climate change. Together, these two countries account for nearly two thirds (60%) of global cocoa production.
C hotter by climate change. Together, these two countries account for nearly two thirds (60%) of global cocoa production. The global coffee market has also taken serious hits. Brazil is the world's biggest exporter of Arabica, while Vietnam is the biggest exporter of Robusta. Global coffee prices were 55% higher in August 2024 following the 2023 drought in Brazil, which scientists said was made 10-30 times more likely due to climate change, while Robusta coffee prices were 100% higher in July 2024 following record-breaking heat a few months earlier in Vietnam and across Asia.
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