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The NBA has signed agreements designating Kalshi and Polymarket as its official preferred prediction market exchanges, allowing both platforms to use that title in their marketing. The league also reached an agreement involving a federal agency responsible for regulating these prediction markets.
Polymarket odds gave Flávio Bolsonaro roughly an 80 percent chance of winning Brazil's presidential runoff, with that figure holding as high as 81 percent on election day itself. Lula da Silva instead won the vote 51.8 percent to 48.2 percent, prompting Bolsonaro's odds to collapse to as low as 15 percent once results began emerging. More than $62 million had been wagered on Bolsonaro winning.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a memo prohibiting Department of War personnel from using nonpublic information to place bets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, warning that financial stakes could compromise military judgment and operational security. Violations could trigger administrative, disciplinary, or criminal action under military and federal law. The memo follows earlier White House warnings after suspicious, highly-timed bets on an Iran ceasefire and a Trump aide's reported $100,000 win betting on the president's remarks.
Utah officials allege prediction-market operator Kalshi ran an unlicensed gambling operation in the state, estimating the company collected as much as $61.2 million in fees from wagers placed by Utah users. The state is pursuing financial penalties tied to those allegedly illegal transactions.
Polymarket hosted a market titled 'Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?' for nearly three weeks starting September 30, tied to a civil suit alleging seven Cornell students drugged and gang-raped a former student. After Defector and Front Office Sports reported on the market and women's rights advocates criticized it online, Polymarket removed the listing, saying it was responding to public sentiment.
Analysis cited by Wired found that two Polymarket election markets, tied to Ethiopia and Romania, generated over $600 million in trading volume, much of it after the races had concluded. Researchers identified $284 million in questionable trades around Ethiopia's election and found that 99.6% of trading volume in a Romanian election market during certain periods was flagged as likely wash trading. Polymarket said it flagged and blocked the Ethiopia-related accounts but did not explain why the activity continued for months first.
Polymarket, the prediction market platform, has been paying social media users in crypto—from $10 to several hundred dollars per post—to quote-retweet content from its branded esports accounts. According to posts in an internal Discord by a Polymarket representative, the program has enrolled more than 800 participants and includes guidelines on disclosure and acceptable post types, which appear as a small 'Paid partnership' tag on X.
Analysis of Polymarket's offshore platform found two global election markets generated over $600 million in trading volume, with most activity concentrated on long-shot candidates who lost. In Ethiopia's election, where incumbent Abiy Ahmed won decisively, only $173,000 was bet on his victory while more than $41 million was traded on his chief of staff winning instead, part of over $285 million wagered overwhelmingly on losing outcomes. Former Polymarket trader Chris Park found that roughly $284 million of that volume came from pairs of accounts repeatedly trading with each other.
Analysis by former Polymarket trader Chris Park found that two Polymarket election markets—covering Ethiopia's recent elections and another global race—generated over $600 million in trading volume, with most bets placed on candidates who ultimately lost. In Ethiopia's case, about $285 million was wagered, with roughly $284 million of that stemming from pairs of accounts repeatedly trading with each other rather than genuine independent bettors.
Former Senator Blanche Lincoln, who helped write Dodd-Frank provisions letting regulators ban sports-event betting on prediction markets, has been lobbying Congress and the CFTC since 2024 on behalf of Kalshi to allow such wagers. The 2010 law left the decision to the executive branch; the Biden administration restricted sports-based contracts, while the Trump administration has moved to permit them and is contesting state efforts to regulate prediction markets.
The National Council on Problem Gambling accepted a $2 million donation from prediction platform Kalshi, finalized by executive director Heather Maurer without full board approval and under a non-disclosure agreement. The arrangement triggered backlash from board members and state gambling regulators, many of whom left the organization, and Maurer ultimately resigned.
New consumer research finds that Gen Z shoppers are directing more of their budgets toward dining out, fitness and entertainment rather than sticking with traditional retail brands. The research also found this age group frequently uses rideshare services, public transit, coupons, and occasionally gambling or prediction markets, spreading purchases across a wider range of stores than older generations.