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Prediction Markets

20 GoKawiil briefs on this topic

Kalshi bans George Santos for life over State of the Union trading scheme

Kalshi issued its first-ever lifetime ban against former Rep. George Santos and fined him $71,356 for insider trading and market manipulation. Santos had placed bets on whether he'd attend Trump's February 2026 State of the Union address, then posted misleading claims about attending to move contract prices before revealing he was actually at an airport. Kalshi froze his account and referred the case to the CFTC, which he settled with earlier this summer for $35,000.

Ninth Circuit says Kalshi's sports contracts are gambling, not swaps

A federal appeals court ruled Friday that Nevada may enforce its gambling statutes against Kalshi's sports-related prediction contracts, rejecting the company's claim that CFTC oversight shields it from state gaming law. The Ninth Circuit panel called Kalshi's sports event contracts functionally identical to sportsbook bets and dismissed its attempt to distinguish them as disingenuous.

9th Circuit lets Nevada regulate Kalshi's prediction markets

The 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals rejected Kalshi's bid to stop Nevada from regulating its prediction market operations, siding with the state's gambling regulators and attorney general who sued Kalshi in February for allegedly operating without a sports gambling license. The ruling adds to a patchwork of conflicting state and federal legal outcomes for Kalshi, which also faces action from Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York and Arizona, even as a separate court found New Jersey lacks authority to regulate the platform.

9th Circuit rules sports-event contracts aren't protected 'swaps,' hurting Kalshi

The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in a Nevada case that betting on sporting outcomes does not qualify as a federally regulated 'swap' under the Commodity Exchange Act, rejecting the broad interpretation that prediction-market firm Kalshi has relied on to argue states can't block its sports contracts. The decision undermines the reasoning Arizona federal judge Michael Liburdi used earlier this year to block Arizona's attorney general from prosecuting Kalshi under state gambling laws.

9th Circuit sides with Nevada, says Kalshi sports contracts are gambling

A unanimous three-judge panel on the US Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit ruled that Nevada can enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi's sports-related event contracts, rejecting the company's claim that federal commodities law shields it from state oversight. The decision upholds a lower court order allowing Nevada's Gaming Control Board to act against Kalshi, Crypto.com and Robinhood over sports-event contracts offered on their platforms.

Appeals Court Says States May Treat Prediction Markets as Gambling

A federal appeals court ruled that states retain authority to regulate prediction markets under their gambling laws, rejecting arguments that federal oversight preempts state action. The decision addresses ongoing legal disputes over platforms like Kalshi that offer event-based betting contracts.

Google engineer's lawyers argue Polymarket bets aren't regulated swaps

Michele Spagnuolo, the Google engineer charged with insider trading over Polymarket wagers, has filed a motion to dismiss the case. His attorneys don't dispute he profited using internal Google information, but argue his bets—including one on singer D4vd becoming Google's most-searched person of 2025—were unregulated gambling, not financial instruments covered by the Commodities Exchange Act.

Kalshi and Polymarket users now bet on which companies will announce layoffs

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded beyond sports and elections to let users wager on whether major companies will cut jobs in upcoming quarters. Experts say the growing volume of these markets is worth watching as a potential signal of workforce sentiment.