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The NBA has signed agreements designating Kalshi and Polymarket as its official preferred prediction market exchanges, allowing both platforms to use that title in their marketing. The league also reached an agreement involving a federal agency responsible for regulating these prediction markets.
Polymarket odds gave Flávio Bolsonaro roughly an 80 percent chance of winning Brazil's presidential runoff, with that figure holding as high as 81 percent on election day itself. Lula da Silva instead won the vote 51.8 percent to 48.2 percent, prompting Bolsonaro's odds to collapse to as low as 15 percent once results began emerging. More than $62 million had been wagered on Bolsonaro winning.
A researcher named Jared Holt shared a photo of a fortune cookie slip that read 'Yes, we paid for a fortune cookie ad' with a QR code linking to prediction market Polymarket. The image spread widely across Bluesky and X, drawing anger from users who called it a new low in advertising. It remains unclear whether Polymarket directly arranged the ad or used a third-party firm, and the company has not yet responded to requests for comment.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a memo prohibiting Department of War personnel from using nonpublic information to place bets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, warning that financial stakes could compromise military judgment and operational security. Violations could trigger administrative, disciplinary, or criminal action under military and federal law. The memo follows earlier White House warnings after suspicious, highly-timed bets on an Iran ceasefire and a Trump aide's reported $100,000 win betting on the president's remarks.
Polymarket hosted a market titled 'Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?' for nearly three weeks starting September 30, tied to a civil suit alleging seven Cornell students drugged and gang-raped a former student. After Defector and Front Office Sports reported on the market and women's rights advocates criticized it online, Polymarket removed the listing, saying it was responding to public sentiment.
Analysis cited by Wired found that two Polymarket election markets, tied to Ethiopia and Romania, generated over $600 million in trading volume, much of it after the races had concluded. Researchers identified $284 million in questionable trades around Ethiopia's election and found that 99.6% of trading volume in a Romanian election market during certain periods was flagged as likely wash trading. Polymarket said it flagged and blocked the Ethiopia-related accounts but did not explain why the activity continued for months first.
Polymarket, the prediction market platform, has been paying social media users in crypto—from $10 to several hundred dollars per post—to quote-retweet content from its branded esports accounts. According to posts in an internal Discord by a Polymarket representative, the program has enrolled more than 800 participants and includes guidelines on disclosure and acceptable post types, which appear as a small 'Paid partnership' tag on X.
Analysis of Polymarket's offshore platform found two global election markets generated over $600 million in trading volume, with most activity concentrated on long-shot candidates who lost. In Ethiopia's election, where incumbent Abiy Ahmed won decisively, only $173,000 was bet on his victory while more than $41 million was traded on his chief of staff winning instead, part of over $285 million wagered overwhelmingly on losing outcomes. Former Polymarket trader Chris Park found that roughly $284 million of that volume came from pairs of accounts repeatedly trading with each other.
Analysis by former Polymarket trader Chris Park found that two Polymarket election markets—covering Ethiopia's recent elections and another global race—generated over $600 million in trading volume, with most bets placed on candidates who ultimately lost. In Ethiopia's case, about $285 million was wagered, with roughly $284 million of that stemming from pairs of accounts repeatedly trading with each other rather than genuine independent bettors.
The National Council on Problem Gambling accepted a $2 million donation from prediction platform Kalshi, finalized by executive director Heather Maurer without full board approval and under a non-disclosure agreement. The arrangement triggered backlash from board members and state gambling regulators, many of whom left the organization, and Maurer ultimately resigned.
The NFL filed a brief supporting New Jersey's request for the Supreme Court to clarify whether states or the CFTC regulate prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The league said $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded on such platforms on the first Sunday of this season involved NFL games, and argued states are better equipped to oversee these markets as gambling-like products. Kalshi disputed the claim, saying the CFTC is actively regulating sports-related contracts through ongoing rulemaking.
A new CBS drama incorporates themes of technological upheaval, including AI misuse and corporate power, through fictionalized stories inspired by real-world events. The show, created by Robert and Michelle King, follows a Silicon Valley law firm fighting against major tech companies in a case-of-the-week format. It aims to explore societal anxieties about rapid technological change and its impact beyond the Bay Area.